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\title{{\em Statistics, Science, \& Public Policy:\\ Society, Science and Education}\\
\vspace{0.5in}
{\LARGE The University \\ Past and Future}}
\author{R.W. Oldford \\ University of Waterloo}
\date{April 28, 2000}
\maketitle
{\em {\footnotesize 
This is the transcipt of an invited talk as presented to the
conference {\em Statistics, Science, \& Public Policy: Society, Science and Education}
at Hearstmonceux Castle, England.  The session was entitled `The University -- Past and
Future'.

The chair of the session was Professor Jerry Lawless of the University of Waterloo; the conference
organizer was Professor Agnes Herzberg of Queen's University (Kingston, Ontario).
}}


\section{The Past}
\begin{quote}
``To carry the mind in writing back into the past, and bring it into sympathy with antiquity
\ldots is a task of great labour and judgment -- the rather because in ancient transactions
the truth is difficult to ascertain, and in modern it is dangerous to tell.''
\end{quote}
These words of Sir Francis Bacon's are worth bearing in mind here today, for we often carry with us
an image of the university's past that may be more ideal than real.
History shows, I believe, that universities have always faced significant change imposed from outside.
An important challenge has always been to properly balance nurturing the ideal against
relating relevantly to society.
The former requires stability, the latter adaptability.

Bacon's words come to us from about 400 years ago when his alma mater, Cambridge, was itself about
400 years old.  Bacon was a harsh critic of universities and their `schoolmen'.
His time was one of much change and significant challenge to the university.
It seems an appropriate place to start, although other times and other places
would serve as well.

Long charged with the preservation, refinement, and promotion
of existing knowledge, the universities became well suited to this role but
research into the unknown was a different matter.
Bacon argued that a new institution be created, separate from the universities, with the mandate to provide scholars
the leisure and the facilities to advance the existing body of knowledge through novel research.
So did others, including Sir Humphrey Gilbert.

Sir Henry Savile instead challenged the universities, Oxford in particular,
to become the centres for new research.
He arranged financial support, but it came with strings attached.
As expected, Savile's professor in astronomy would teach Ptolemy, but he would
be required to interpret Ptolemy
in light of Copernicus.

Ties between society and the universities grew stronger.  Generous benefactors built
new colleges at Oxford and Cambridge which in turn provided lodging for the sons
of their patrons.  Colleges began to teach their own courses supplementary to those of the
university and so became more responsive to students' and society's needs.
The colleges became elevated in power within the universities and college heads were elected by
aid of royal `letters mandate'. Government's influence increased and solidified.

Student enrolment and demographics changed as more
of the upper class expected university education for all their young men rather than only
those destined for the clergy or other professions.

In the New World, new colleges were founded to educate the future leaders of the
colonies.  Here the tradition would begin not with guilds of learned masters
who were pooling their resources for they didn't exist.
Rather, from the beginning universities would be founded directly by local authority.

After the War of Independence, before even leaving New York, loyalists
urged the founding of colleges in English Canada for fear that Canadian youth be ``sent to the states of
this continent where they will soon imbibe principles that are unfavourable to the British tradition.''\footnote{Letter
of March 8, 1783 from Loyalists still in New York to the governor-in-chief of British North America Sir Guy Carleton.
Page 28 of Harris, 1976.} Universities helped define the nation.

As society changed so too did the universities.  With the industrial revolution,
western society demanded greater access and different courses of study.
Germany led the way in the early to mid-nineteenth century devoting considerable
resources toward research aimed at national development and
industrialization.  Germany was also the first to establish
graduate programmes and the doctoral degree which clearly marked research as integral to the university and
of value to the nation.

Other countries soon followed suit and technical
institutes were established throughout the western world.
In the United States, direct links were encouraged between the university and industry, agriculture,
and government service.

In 1869 Charles W. Eliot,  the president of Harvard, argued that practical
science and technology provided as sound a course of study for a university education as that of a classical college
education. Eliot challenged the professoriate to develop new methods of teaching accordingly.

By the turn of the century, programmes in engineering, science and technology were well established. 
In North America student populations grew. U.S. figures show the average number of students at college
roughly doubling every 20 years from 1870 to 1910.
The ten largest American universities averaged
2,000 students apiece in 1895, doubled a short 15 years later, and increased
to an average of 5,000 students in 1915.
 
In short, the challenges of the past sound familiar to the modern ear.
Although the details differ, few of our modern concerns seem new in kind.
The future would seem to be more of the same;
the challenge is to think about what might be fundamentally different?

But first a brief interlude.
\section{An Interlude}

On July 6 1934, in the midst of the Great Depression, a convoy of 2 limousines,
5 Citroen half-tracks, 130 horses loaded with provisions and gasoline and 53 hollywood cowboys
left Edmonton Alberta to begin a supposed scientific expedition across an uncharted region of the
Canadian Rockies.   Provisions included caseloads of champagne, exotic food such as caviar and truffles, clothing
for society balls, a movie camera, and 100 pounds of surveying equipment -- this last item being
the first dropped when the going got tough.  The entourage included the leader's wife, a lady
friend, a valet, a maid-in-waiting, a surveyor and a famous hollywood cameraman to record the trip for
posterity.\footnote{The footage of the trip is preserved in George Ungar's film ``The Champagne Safari'' produced by the
National Film Board of Canada. I highly recommend it.}

Now, it will come as no more surprise to you than it did to the Edmonton locals that when the
entourage actually encountered the rocky mountains, forests, rivers and swamps of Canada's northwest bush,
that one by one the vehicles were destroyed.   And that supplying the huge party quickly became
a nightmare. When the snow began to fly in October,
the project was abandoned at a loss estimated to be over \$250,000 --
1934 dollars!

What might come as a surprise is that this
ill-conceived, poorly planned, badly executed, misguided trek was the brainchild of Charles Bedaux,
a French born American millionaire who happened to be the western world's pre-eminent management guru.

During the Great Depression, as in other times when money is short, industry and government
spent large sums of money on opportunistic management consultants like Bedaux who promise
to recover more than their cost by increasing productivity!  And as economic conditions worsened,
Bedaux's appeal increased.

Bedaux's consultancy was a flexible variant of Taylorism, so-called after the American 
Frederick Taylor who is still known today as  `the father of Scientific Management'.
To maximize efficiency `scientific method' would be applied to
the shop floor.
Performance measures were required.  Goals could then be set and workers
paid accordingly.
Time and motion studies were the order of the day.  Stop watch sales increased.

At the turn of the century, Taylorism was adopted and implemented by such
managerial visionaries and pioneers as the
Harvard Graduate School of Business, Vladimir Lenin, Leon Trotsky, and of course
Albert Speer the economic organizer of the Third Reich.
Of this lot, Bedaux seems to have been the most opportunistic.

From the outset, it was clear that this approach would require a new managerial professional class
as overseers, planners, and efficiency experts.
Taylor himself said: ``As a general rule, the more men you have working efficiently in the management \ldots
the greater will be your economy.''\footnote{p. 422 Vol. 1 of {\em Frederick Taylor, Father of Scientific Management} 2
Vols.; Also quoted in John Ralston Saul's {\em Voltaire's Bastards: The Dictatorship of Reason in the West}, p.119.
 }
In the U.K. today management consultants are thriving.  
British management consultancy traces its roots with pride back to British Bedaux Limited.
In 1996, the British Management Consulting Association
boasted of having 7,267 consultants as members, three and a half times their numbers twenty years earlier.

And where might the future be for Taylorism? Well, in 1976 Peter Drucker wrote:
\begin{quotation}
``The need today is \ldots to learn from [Taylor]. The need is to do
for knowledge work and knowledge worker what Taylor, beginning almost a century ago,
did for manual work and the manual worker.''
\end{quotation}
\ldots Yikes.

Now, `knowledge work' and `knowledge worker' sound an awful lot like the sort of thing that goes on at a
university.  And working with knowledge -- acquiring, understanding, refining, teaching, or creating it -- sounds a lot
like the sort of thing one considers when one thinks about \ldots intelligence.

Objective measures of intelligence, and directing improvement of society as a consequence, are also ideas which
trace their roots to the scientific optimism of the 19th century.
They have, however, become classic cases where the built-in measuring bias has had
tragic consequences.

In statistics we teach that every measuring system has three sources of
potential bias and variation -- the instrument or gauge, the method used to conduct the measurement,
and the persons who actually do the measuring.  Considerable effort has to be spent on each of these to reduce
the bias and variation in the measuring system before even hoping to act on the basis of
the measured results.

Experience with IQ suggests the validity of intelligence measures to be inherently
problematic.  If something is being measured, it is doubtful that
it is what we would agree to call `intelligence'.

Now, a university is a collection of individuals whose common interest is this so-called `knowledge work.'
Like the individual humans involved, the collection is essentially a living breathing organism.
How much more difficult, then, to define valid measures of its merit?
Moreover, since such measures are intended to steer behaviour, the organism measured will
naturally respond.  This kind of feedback adds another level of complexity to the measuring.
A sure sign that the measuring system has a validity problem is that the organism
can improve the measured value by taking actions which would not generally be considered
to be improvements in merit.

But I'm sure other speakers will address this in more detail.

Back to the future.
\section{The Future}
The future is a matter of options.  And to balance progress with preservation
we must choose carefully between them.

Certainly gains of efficiency and productivity are there to be had, but these
are more likely to come from the ground up, from within the institutions themselves,
than from any collection of overseers with little understanding of the purpose
and nature of universities. Their time horizons are taken from business and
politics and are at odds with the longer horizons needed for the `advancement of learning'.

Many of these efficiency gains will continue to be had through the judicious
use of technology.  But technology must  integrate with and serve the functions
of the institute -- if it does not, it will not and should not be deployed.
Universities were early adopters of e-mail, word processing, and the world-wide
web because these technologies fit; they facilitated the normal working of the
institute.

Further considerable gains in efficiency are being realized as more of the day to day
administration of the university is being moved on-line  -- university policy and records  keeping,
student registration and course selection, career services, financial services, and university
government.
There is room for productivity gains in the administration of teaching and
research as well.  Communication of course information -- handouts and course notes, postings of solutions
and grades -- can be done on the web.
The announcement, scheduling, and organization of research seminars, workshops and conferences
are ideally suited to the web.
In all this, the productivity promise is to reduce the administrative overhead within the
university community so that more time can be given over to its mission.

The web however is larger than this.  Huge investments are now being made in cabling and
switching infrastructure by government and business to provide high bandwidth information
networks across nations and around the world.
The net is now perceived to be of strategic economic importance by all levels of government.
The world-wide web is stumbling towards adolescence and there is much wonder about its place in
society. And in particular, about its relation to the university.

Three things together distinguish the internet from previous technology.
First is its unprecedented physical reach.  High-speed connections to the home and workplace
are there now or will be shortly; lower speed wireless connections enable access from the
most remote locations.
A single-web-server can reach around the planet.
Second, the net is open.  Whatever
information we choose to provide will be accessible world wide -- no further special arrangements
need to be made.
Third, its currency is information.
People access the net to find out something; school-children are trained to search the net as they
would a library.

Here then is an unprecedented opportunity for the university to connect directly with the society that
supports it.
Not through any intermediate like government or business, but directly.  An opportunity to
offer information.  An opportunity to define itself in the public eye.

A common suggestion, particularly from the overseers and network builders, is the development
of completely web-based courses with `facilitators' rather than instructors.
Indeed a few so-called virtual universities have recently been established with the goal to
provide all of their courses on the web.

This should give one pause for several reasons.
Here are three.  First the pedagogical soundness of such courses is suspect.
As C.W. Eliot put it in his presidential inaugural address in 1869 
\begin{quotation}
``\ldots none know how crude are the prevailing
methods of teaching these subjects as those who teach them best.  They cannot be taught from books alone,
but must be vivified and illustrated by teachers of active, comprehensive, and judicious
mind.''
\end{quotation}
If it is difficult to write a good textbook, how much harder to construct a good web-course?

This leads to the second point, namely the task is an undertaking of some magnitude.
One estimate based on experience suggests 150 hours labour for each hour of quality web material,
or about four years for a typical university course.

My third reason for pause is that the approach is founded on, and conveys to the public,
the pre-Elizabethan model of a university as the caretaker of knowledge rather than
as its developer.
One suspects then that research must be done somewhere else, where the manuscripts are not quite
so beautifully illuminated.

The population, our supporters, are  most ignorant about the research role of the university.
Though we often express frustration that this is the case, we take few steps to
remedy the problem.  Even amongst researchers, in a world which produces many thousands of
periodicals annually, it is
difficult to access existing relevant research.  Integrative research, described in a recent
Ontarion government discussion paper as requiring 
\begin{quotation}
``\ldots that the researcher know about
and understand advances in research in an area and can distil them for the greater
understanding of students, other researchers, and the public''
\end{quotation}
 generally falls outside the domain of
established research journals, and is lost to all but a few colleagues and students.

To me, the best, most valuable place for a university's web effort is in the organized dissemination
of its entire research effort.  This would include: every research paper, every scholarly treatment of
any subject, every public speech, and web-based pedagogical pearls which illustrate important
concepts.  The university's web space should be the first and
permanent publication vehicle for its members.  It should be completely open to the public.

Collectively, the university web spaces would constitute a virtual research library that could be indexed,
searched, and accessed globally.
The initial steps toward this goal can already be taken.
If achieved, this would constitute a fundamental change and would be of lasting value.
It would position universities well for the future.

\section*{Close}
In summary then, the universities are older than parliament and during that long history have been
undergoing continual change in concert with society.
The challenge has always been to balance the long-term responsibilities that universities
have to society against the short-term ones.

Universities will become more efficient in their internal administration largely through
technological innovation and hardly at all because of scientific management.

Finally, the internet does represent a fundamentally new opportunity for universities to
connect with society -- both the general public and the world community of
scholars.
The vision to pursue however is not that of a virtual university but
rather to look to that important scholarly institution older than a university
and to create a virtual library.


\section*{Sources}

\noindent
Altbach, P.G., Berdahl, R.O. and P.J. Gumport, editors (1999). {\em American Higher Education in the Twenty-first
Century: Social, Political, and Economic Challenges}.  The Johns Hopkins University Press.

\noindent
Curtis, M.H. (1959). {\em Oxford and Cambridge in Transition 1558 -- 1642}, Oxford University Press.

\noindent
Harris, R.S. (1976), {\em A History of Higher Education in Canada, 1663 -- 1960}. University of Toronto Press.

\noindent
Hofstadter, R. and W. Smith, editors (1961). {\em American Higher Education:  A Documentary History, Vol. 1}.
University of Chicago Press.
\end{document}
The application of science -- that is, technology -- is a matter of options, matching chosen means to chosen ends.  Societies have often decided not to use technological breakthroughs made possible by science. ...
Civilization implies integration.  Both progress and preservation

Long the institution charged with the preservation, refinement, and promotion
of existing knowledge, universities were beginning to be charged with the relatively
new mandate of research into the unknown by such men as Sir Henry Savile.  Others like Bacon
and Sir Humphrey Gilbert proposed instead that special institutions separate from the
universities be set up with this mandate.

Endowned chairs in astronomy, geometry, and history
at Oxford and Cambridge forced change on the material taught there.  The Savilian professorships were
particularly directed -- the professor of geometry was required to teach Archimedes and Appolonius's
{\em Conics} in addition to Euclid's {\em Elements}, and the astronomy professor directed to
interpret the traditional material of Ptolemy in light of the findings of Copernicus.
Such targetted support significantly advanced the level of mathematics and the stature of
empirical methods.

The English universities were as more than just institutes
providing training for those going on to the clergy and other learned professions.
These changes were a reflection of the interest in 
Enrolment at university increased during this time and changed in nature.  
 as  not least of which
from Bacon himself. Convinced that the universities were largely preservers and promoters of old knowledge,
Bacon proposed that of
The swings between religious affiliations -- Government interfered by declaring them
answerable to the crown alone rather than the Roman or the Protestant churches.
view the university Elizabethan troubles, church, colleges, enrolment increases
Bacon's proposal of separate institutes for knowledge creation.

The application of science -- that is, technology -- is a matter of options, matching chosen means to chosen ends.  Societies have often decided not to use technological breakthroughs made possible by science. ...
Civilization implies integration.  Both progress and preservation

Electronic mail has long been adopted by universities and research institutes 
as a convenient means to communicate first with distant colleagues, then more locally
within the university with colleagues and students.
The same is true for electronic word processing and the world-wide web.
Universities are traditionally early adopters of such technology.
But they are also careful in expending scarce resources.

The world wide web is of particular interest because of the huge investments
now being made in cabling and switching infrastructure by government and business to provide
high bandwith information networks across nations and around the world.
The net is now perceived to be of strategic economic importance by every government.
Of course this is only infrastructure, increased and valuable content is expected to follow.
As the web stumbles towards adolesence and there is much wonder about its place in
society. And in particular about its relation to the university.

The university separates the duties of a faculty member into three interrelated components:
teaching, research, and administration.  So we might ask what the
options are for the use of the web in each of these.
By far, the most obvious value for the web is administration of the university
-- university
policy and records keeping, student registration and course selection,
career services, financial services, and university government.
With respect to the other two components, it is again the administrative pieces that
are well-served by the net.
For teaching there is communication of course information, handouts and course notes, 
posting of assignments, solutions and grades, and one on one communication between teachers
and students.
For research, there is posting of research papers, seminar schedules, and conference and
workshop organization.
This works because it causes little disruption to the way things
actually gets done and shows some promise of providing genuine
efficiency gains as well as increased convenience.

But surely the net has more to offer than this?  It is intended after all
that in the industrialized world high-speed connections will be available to most
homes in the near future.  Lower speed wireless connections will allow access from the most remote
locations.  How do we maximize the value of this
capability for the advancement of learning?
There seem to me to be two strategies.

The one seeing the most interest
lately is the delivery of completely web-based courses
with the instructor as facilitator.  Great for distance education.
Some suggest that web-based delivery of all courses
is the future. A few so-called virtual universities exist in some form today.

The consequences of this strategic direction are rarely critically examined by its
proponents.  First the pedagogical value of such courses is extremely suspect.
To update the words of C.W. Eliot from 1869 ``
``.. none know how crude are the prevailing methods of teaching these subjects as those who teach them best.  They
cannot be taught from books {\em (or websites)} alone, but must be vivified and illustrated by teachers of active ,
comprehensive, and judicious mind.''\footnote{From his presidential inaugural address; p. 605 of Volume 2 of{\em
American Higher Education}.}
Second, it is expensive to do.  It has been estimated that to produce one hour of a quality
web-based course requires on the order of 150 hours of labour.\footnote{Maclean's: Johnston's magazine article}
Moreover, once done it will require ongoing updates to remain both current and fresh --
students today, and more so tomorrow, have increasingly sophisticated computational tastes.
That is sufficient to cause one pause, never mind the stability of the technology, the
slow last inch of the network, or the problems of ownership and quality assurance.

The most troublesome aspect is that the approach seems predicated on the
pre-Elizabethan model of a university as the caretaker of knowledge rather than as the developer
of new knowledge.  Small wonder that some faculty feel pressure to add colourful
decoration to their course web space like so many medieval monks illuminating manuscripts.

A pedagogically sounder and ultimately more useful approach would be to encourage the development of small
web-based pearls which illustrate timeless concepts that crop up in different courses.
This would be the output of what has been called `integrative research', or `reflective inquiry.'
As David Smith put it ``It requires that the researcher know about and understand advances in research in an
area and can distil them for the greater understanding of students, other researchers, and the public.''\footnote{From 
the Ontario Ministry of Training, Colleges, and Universities' 1997 Discussion Paper: Framework for
a Research Policy for Ontario.}

And that leads to the second strategy which sees receives much less attention but one which I believe
is much more important 

Library of Alexandria.

As an institution, universities are older than parliament and show no sign of disappearing.
